tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28078378.post880677838961083268..comments2023-10-30T11:00:05.243+00:00Comments on Bacon Butty: Rising emissions - words, deeds and the struggle to comeUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28078378.post-77311149588597545662007-04-14T23:26:00.000+01:002007-04-14T23:26:00.000+01:00Yes, the dash for gas wasn't actually done by desi...Yes, the dash for gas wasn't actually done by design - it was really a consequence of liberalisation following privatisation. The economics of the time lined up behind building CCGTs, because capital cost was low, and the fuel was cheap and domestically sourced. Tough regulation for acid rain and air quality, combined with the generators no longer subsidising coal through expensive contracts created a decisive disadvantage. <BR/><BR/>We've already banked fossil fuel decarbonisation (ie. gas) and structural movement of heavy industry. And the gas advantage is giving way to coal again...<BR/><BR/>Always difficult to foresee structural change, but maybe other changes might include: very high oil or gas prices, driven by insecurity or approaching 'peak oil' (don't hold your breath); a serious policy-induced carbon price > €50 tonne CO2; different approach to pricing infrastructure for demand-management purposes; a telecoms / internet driven revolution in how we work and travel; changes to 'social geography' and transport intensity, perhaps driven by housing and lifestyle choices; changing attitudes to material consumption in favour of experience (yoga instead of shopping); a step back from market orthodoxy to enable a huge nuclear programme. Perhaps profound cultural change, somehow creating a changed relationship with the future - maybe our descendants will master time travel then return from the future and give us a bollocking for making a mess of their inheritance.<BR/><BR/>On the other hand, theories of technology suggest we should expect accelerating economic growth, there are about 50% more people expected by 2050, world average income is now about $8,000, but about $38,000 for the US... so there is considerable room for material growth for most of the world.Clive Bateshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15614056019814665135noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28078378.post-3521154804702257942007-04-14T21:27:00.000+01:002007-04-14T21:27:00.000+01:00On my (perhaps overspeedy) skim read, the summary ...On my (perhaps overspeedy) skim read, the summary of the paper you link to on why the 'dash for gas' happened indicates that in policy terms it was largely fortuituous. We were 'saved' (in the sense of GHG reductions, although this was not the aim at the time) by technology ex machina, so to speak. In what looks like the likely absence of environment becoming a central organising principle in the way industrial societies work (on the basis you don't get a 'Manhattan project for the environment' unless you really do fear the equivalent of the Nazis coming to get you) can we imagine another set of structural changes (incorporating big technological advances) that 'save the day' again? Is to try and do so essentially giving up on the problem?Caspar Hendersonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04667141284390082748noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28078378.post-68756645135554330902007-04-13T08:10:00.000+01:002007-04-13T08:10:00.000+01:00Thanks Tom, Perhaps the problem is that policy int...Thanks Tom, Perhaps the problem is that policy interventions just never match the strength of structural forces, even though we do somehow live with structural change - our policy-induced carbon price is tiny compared to the effect of rising oil and gas prices.Clive Bateshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15614056019814665135noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28078378.post-22955719222150829282007-04-11T16:37:00.000+01:002007-04-11T16:37:00.000+01:00This analysis also illustrates a broader and more ...This analysis also illustrates a broader and more general point. Most gains in environmental quality in Britain, and in most other places, have been more a consequence of structural change in the economy than envirtonmental policy. It would be very interesting to know if anyone had done a study which sought to seperate the effects of structural change from those of environmental policy.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com